Headed for Another Cold War?

Aitrayee Sarkar

The fight was all about life; all about the struggle for existence.  The controversial 2 November election was all about Donetsk and Luhansk returning to ballot from bullet. Both the eastern Ukraine provinces had declared themselves as self-proclaimed states in the Federal State of Novorossiya, which is largely controlled by Russia supported rebels. Moscow, expectedly, lent credence to the election, while the European Union (EU), the US and the West opposed it. They claimed that Moscow’s support will not only infringe the Minsk Protocol, but would also fuel the violence already raging for months.

Counting of votes after the 2 November election

Moscow, earlier this year, sent its army to east Ukraine to capture large tracts of land. Its action was followed by the Kiev revolt. The result was direct clashes with the Ukraine armed forces, supported by the US and the West. Over 4,000 people unofficially died in the clashes and thousands others were rendered homeless. A large part of Ukraine is now under a humanitarian crisis and international experts believe that the situation is unprecedented since the days of the Cold War which could trigger fresh animosity between Russia and the West  

The Ukraine crisis is seeded in the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. Kiev always had to look towards Moscow and Washington for assistance, courtesy its weak foreign and monetary policy. The country could never take sovereign and independent decisions. Nestled between Russia and the rest of Europe, Ukraine was also never allowed to decide its policies. Kiev increasingly failed to exploit its enviable mineral resources like coal and natural gas. The domestic companies were no match for the American and European MNCs. The country was also divided in terms of popular mindset. While the western part was more inclined to the West, the Russian speaking eastern part expressed solidarity with Moscow. The situation was already volatile and the explosion happened when the then president Viktor Yanukovych singularly scrapped an agreement with the EU. The revolt which started in Kiev, soon spread to other parts of the country. Disastrous results followed when Yanukovych applied force to cull the rebellion. The president, cornered from all sides, fled the country and Ukraine was up for grabs.

The militia government that assumed power after Yanukovych fled, now wants the stamp of a popular mandate in its favour. But the 2 November election, sans any endorsement from the international community, is unlikely to get legitimacy. Alexander Zakharchenko took over as the chief executive of Donetsk. Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, denounced the results and warned of stern steps against the election.

A large section of those who voted, believe that their demand for independence is now stronger than before. It’s a fact nonetheless that Russia is now being increasingly cornered globally over the Ukraine issue. The EU and US embargos have hit the Russian economy hard.  Several parts of the country are beset with political instability. Ukraine too will feel the heat if the mineral rich south-east separates from the rest of the country. But the West, led by the US, would unlikely let go the resources. Whether Donetsk and Luhansk can ultimately enjoy their independence, is a million dollar question. With the US and Russia eager to extract their pound of flesh, it seems the region is headed for a neo Cold War.